Friday Forecasts: 4/7/25

Your weekly pulse on markets, narratives, protocols, and policy.

 

Market Pulse

Bernstein sets $230 price target on Circle stock, calls it the ‘internet dollar network for the next decade’

Analysts at the research and brokerage firm Bernstein have initiated coverage on Circle with an outperform rating, setting a price target of $230.

Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin, went public on June 5 under the ticker CRCL in one of the hottest IPOs in years. The offering was 25 times oversubscribed, priced above the indicated range at $31, and soared 167% on the first day. It subsequently surged to a peak of over $292 on June 23 before correcting. CRCL closed down 15.5% at $180.43 on Friday, according to The Block’s Circle price page.

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Solana (SOL) Price Hits $150 Again, Yet the Road to New Highs Remains Cloudy

Solana (SOL) spent most of last week stuck below the $150 mark, but that changed today as it finally pushed back above the key psychological level.

Still, the rally might not have much fuel behind it. Demand for SOL remains relatively weak, and broader market sentiment isn’t offering much support.

Here’s what to watch next and the key price levels that could shape where Solana goes from here.

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Narratives to Watch

Over $1.7M in XRP Exit Binance Amid Bullish Higher Low Signal

Cryptocurrencies leaving exchanges is usually deemed bullish because they are transferred to cold storage for future purposes other than speculation.

Is XRP Witnessing Long-Term Holding Intent?

$1.7M in XRP leaving Binance hot wallet suggests that investors are taking tokens off exchanges for long-term holding, reducing sell pressure, and setting the stage for a potential bullish move due to reduced supply and increased confidence.

Therefore, XRP might be eyeing a breakout, having stagnated in the $2.10 to $2.20 zone.

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TD Cowen says Strategy’s equity-to-BTC loop justifies NAV premium despite risks, maintains buy rating

Strategy, Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury firm, finished the second quarter of 2025 with 69,140 bitcoin added to its balance sheet, handily beating TD Cowen’s 66,000-coin estimate and extending the firm’s 2025 BTC yield to almost 20%, the broker said in a research note on Monday.

The latest batch, as of July 1—4,980 BTC bought last week at an average price of $106,801—lifted Strategy’s holdings to 597,325 bitcoin, worth roughly $63 billion. Chairman Michael Saylor funded last week’s purchase with three active at-the-market programs

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Coinbase Is The ‘Amazon Of Crypto Services’, Price Target Boosted To $510

Bernstein analysts have raised their price target for Coinbase Global Inc. citing accelerating growth in the company’s derivatives business and non-trading revenue streams.

The updated price target marks a significant jump from the previous $310 target, reflecting Bernstein’s increased confidence in Coinbase’s evolving position as a leading crypto financial services platform.

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Protocol Watch

Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Asset Management raises $175 million for inaugural venture fund

Galaxy Asset Management, an affiliate of Galaxy Digital Holdings, closed a $175 million raise for Galaxy Ventures Fund I LP on Thursday, focused on investing in early-stage companies across blockchain protocols, software infrastructure, and financialized applications, according to a press release.

The fund’s goal is to build a portfolio of approximately 30 investments in the “most promising” digital asset companies, attracting institutional allocators, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals, though Galaxy has not named them. 

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Bitcoin Treasury Corporation to relist on Toronto exchange, buys 292 BTC

Canadian Bitcoin lending company Bitcoin Treasury Corporation (BTCT) will officially resume trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) Venture Exchange, TSX’s public venture capital marketplace for emerging companies.

The company announced on Thursday that its common shares would be freely traded on the exchange from Monday under the ticker “BTCT,” with over 10 million shares issued and outstanding. The company had already sold more than 10 million BTCT shares. 

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Huaxing Capital Allocates $100 Million for Web3 and Crypto Assets

Huaxing Capital Holdings has approved a $100 million budget to invest in Web3 and cryptocurrency assets over the next two years. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing the company’s presence in the digital asset space, reflecting a growing trend among institutional investors to diversify their portfolios into decentralized technologies and blockchain innovation.

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Regulatory Radar

Circle applies for US trust bank charter to manage its USDC reserve

Stablecoin issuer Circle has applied to establish a national trust bank in the United States that, among other duties, would oversee the firm’s USDC reserve on behalf of its US issuer. 

If the application is approved by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Circle’s First National Digital Currency Bank would be authorized to operate as a federally regulated trust institution, Circle said in a statement on Monday.

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Hong Kong reveals new stablecoin rules and tokenized bond plans

Hong Kong’s latest digital asset blueprint places stablecoin regulation and asset tokenization at the heart of its strategy to become a global crypto and fintech hub.

The policy statement, issued on Thursday, introduces a framework known as “LEAP,” targeting legal clarity, ecosystem expansion, real-world applications and talent development. It builds on the foundation laid by the government’s first policy statement in October 2022.

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European Commission Eases Stablecoin Rules Despite ECB Concerns

The European Commission is set to alter its stablecoin regulations, a move that comes amidst growing concerns from the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding financial stability and cross-jurisdictional risks. The proposed changes aim to treat stablecoins issued outside the European Union as interchangeable with those issued within the bloc. This decision is part of a broader effort to unlock the benefits of stablecoins, such as faster and cheaper cross-border payments, while also addressing the ECB’s warnings about potential risks.

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Moonrig Perspective

Markets are maturing — and so are narratives.
Real opportunity now lies in utility-backed protocols, tokenomics with intent, and cross-chain infrastructure.

This is where Moonrig gives you the edge:
✅ Smarter research via Moonbase
✅ Strategic portfolio design via BUIDL
✅ 360-degrees view of your Crypto holdings via HODL

Turn intelligence into strategy. Stay ahead with Moonrig.

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