Friday Forecasts: 03/04/26
April 3, 2026
Your weekly pulse on markets, narratives, protocols, and policy.
Market Pulse
Bitcoin risks new lows as US dollar targets highest level since April 2025
Bitcoin fell on fresh US-Iran cues, while analysis warned that a resurgent US dollar could spark new lows across crypto and risk assets.
Ether traders said ETH price could see further downside after bulls failed to defend the $2,000 support as signs of declining demand were apparent. Ether’s drop below $2,000 on Friday put it at risk of a deeper correction in the coming weeks or months.
Narratives to Watch
Cardano Executive Teases Potential Mastercard Partnership: Details
The chief executive officer (CEO) of EMURGO, Phillip Pon, has hinted at a possible partnership with global payments giant Mastercard. In a post on X, Pon stated that EMURGO, the commercial arm of Cardano, has been actively engaging Mastercard’s Asia-Pacific (APAC) team.
Solana Hits 10 Billion Transactions as Ethereum Reaches 200 Million Mark
The numbers tell a pretty clear story about where these two major blockchains are heading. Solana’s massive transaction volume comes from its focus on speed and low costs, attracting users who need quick transfers without breaking the bank. Ethereum’s 200 million transactions might seem smaller, but they’re packed with complex smart contracts and DeFi operations that require more processing power. Both networks are carving out their own space in the crypto world, and the competition is getting fierce.
Protocol Watch
Grayscale Bucks the Trend as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Start April With Fresh Outflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) recorded $173.73 million in net outflows on April 1, signaling that institutional selling pressure carried into the new quarter.
The withdrawals came one day after Q1 2026 ended with roughly $500 million in net redemptions, despite a partial recovery in March that brought $1.32 billion back into BTC funds.
TRON DAO Participates in Penn Blockchain Conference 2026, Supports Hackathon and Developer Activity
TRON DAO began its involvement ahead of the conference with a virtual TRON Track workshop on March 24, introducing hackathon participants to the TRON ecosystem. It also sponsored three bounties totaling up to $3,000 across payments and DeFi product demos, infrastructure integrations, and AI and agentic commerce, with $1,000 awarded per track.
Regulatory Radar
Dubai sets formal rules for crypto exchange-traded derivatives
Dubai’s VARA has set formal rules for crypto exchange-traded derivatives, allowing retail access under suitability checks, margin controls and leverage limits.
Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) has introduced a new regulatory framework for crypto exchange-traded derivatives (ETDs), laying out how licensed crypto companies can offer the products in the emirate.
US Treasury seeks public input for state-level stablecoin regulations
The Treasury published its notice of proposed rulemaking for states on dollar-pegged stablecoins with market caps of less than $10 billion
The US Department of the Treasury issued a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) on Wednesday and is seeking public comment on proposed regulations for state-level stablecoin governance frameworks under the GENIUS Act.
Moonrig Perspective
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